Broker Check

Q3 2024 Economic & Market Update

| October 28, 2024

My how time flies. Fall is in the air; winter and the Holidays are at the doorstep.  We’re in the home stretch of 2024!

I received some great feedback from the 2nd Quarter newsletter.  Many useful tips on handling personal information as well as accessing your accounts whenever you felt the urge.  But the best reception I received was to setting appointments with me through my calendar system.  If you’re reading this on your computer, feel free to click HERE to access my calendar and schedule a phone call or Zoom meeting based on your schedule!  Head back to my Blog page and find Q2 2024.


September was Life Insurance Awareness Month: A Time (but not the only time) to Reflect on Your Financial Protection

While September was Life Insurance Awareness Month, an opportunity for all of us to focus on the critical role life insurance plays in safeguarding our families' financial futures, I believe that every month should be just as important. As an investment advisor and life insurance agent, I want to emphasize that this month was not just about awareness; it’s a reminder of the importance of reviewing your life insurance policies and overall insurance needs.

Life changes—whether it’s a new job, a growing family, or major life events—can impact your insurance requirements. Regularly reviewing your policy ensures that your coverage aligns with your current circumstances and financial goals. It’s crucial to ensure that you have adequate protection in place to support your loved ones in the event of an unexpected loss.  Combine that with significant advancements in policy design, now including long term care components, and reduced cost of insurance due to people living longer, now is a great time for a life insurance checkup!  Please click HERE to schedule a time to discuss the steps needed for a life insurance checkup.

I encourage you to take this time to assess your insurance needs. Whether you need to update your existing policy or explore new options, I’m here to guide you every step of the way. Let’s ensure that your family’s future is secure.


October is Financial Planning Awareness Month:  A Great Reminder to Check In On Your Long Term Financial Goals

Financial Planning Month is a time to review the plans you have in place and adjust as necessary. Or to make a plan to begin with if you don’t already have one.

What are your goals? Because financial planning is generally tied to investing, saving for retirement is a common long-term goal focused on during Financial Planning Month. However, you may have other long-term financial goals that you’re working towards as well. Whether your goal is beginning to invest, honing your investment strategy, buying a home or simply becoming more financially healthy, having a clearly defined goal is an important first step in financial planning.

What is your plan?  Once you have a goal set, knowing how you’re going to achieve it is crucial. It’s not enough to make a vague plan of action. Simply saying “I’m going to save more for retirement” will likely not be enough to keep you motivated and help you reach your objective. Instead, you’ll need to have clear, actionable, measurable steps that are feasible for you and your situation. For example, saying something like “I’m going to save 50% more towards retirement this year than I did last year by contributing X dollars more each pay period” will help you stay on track. And when you have specific actions set, you’ll not only hold yourself more accountable, but you’ll stay motivated more easily because you’ll have milestones to celebrate along the way.

How are you tracking your goals?  A key to staying on the right path towards your goals is to keep accurate track of your progress. This Financial Planning Month, examine your tracking methods. Have you been staying on top of measuring your progress? Is your tracking method the best for your process? Are you even tracking at all? Tracking your progress doesn’t have to be complicated. It can be keeping a simple digital spreadsheet, handwriting your progress in a notebook, or utilizing the no-cost service provided through the Client Portal accessed on my website www.smcwealthmanagement.com! Additionally, a number of budgeting and financial apps exist specifically for these purposes as well. Whether it’s the Client Portal or the financial apps, they can do the tracking for you and in a way that is easy to look at and understand. They can also help measure trends and provide reports for you. Tracking your progress can allow you to see whether you’re moving in the right direction or if you need to make adjustments.

Who is helping you reach your goals?  It is most certainly possible for you to reach your goals on your own. But in many cases, it can be beneficial to seek the help of a financial professional. Hiring a financial professional is an important decision. Above all, you need to work with someone you feel comfortable with. Your finances are very personal, so knowing you can trust your financial professional is crucial. Along the same lines, your financial professional needs to work with your specific needs in mind, rather than treating you the same as they treat all their clients. Do some research by reading online reviews, seeking advice from friends and family members you trust, and setting up preliminary meetings before deciding who to trust your money with.

Financial Planning Month is a great time to check in on your long-term financial goals. Ensure that your goals are clearly defined and that you’ve laid out the actionable steps you need to take to reach them. Track them closely so you know whether you’re on the right path.

Now, through the Client Portal made available to all of you, you have the power of putting together and tracking your financial plan at your fingertips. If you would prefer my help and guidance, simply ask. A number of my clients already have and are on their way to building the plan that will help them to reach their financial goals!

Market Overview

Equity Markets
The third quarter was marked by considerable volatility. After a strong start, major indices fluctuated due to mixed earnings reports and changing economic indicators. The S&P 500 closed the quarter slightly higher, driven primarily by gains in technology and consumer discretionary sectors. However, ongoing concerns about inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Fixed Income
In the bond markets, the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates in August, then maintain them during its September meeting contributed to a rally in longer-term Treasuries. Despite earlier increases in yields, the 10-year Treasury yield ended the quarter lower, reflecting a cautious optimism among investors about future economic growth.  Because of this move, the high yield money market fund that many of you have in your account will be sold to purchase a bond mutual fund to benefit from falling interest rates.  The funds I use in your portfolio is based on each of your circumstances.  Ocean Park (formerly Sierra) Tactical Core Income (SSIRX) and Nationwide Amundi Strategic Income (NWXHX) are two that I currently use.  If you have any questions about this change, please do not hesitate to reach out to me.

Economic Indicators

Inflation
Inflation trends showed signs of moderation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.2% year-over-year, down from higher levels seen earlier in the year. Core inflation also decreased, suggesting that the Fed's monetary policy is having the desired effect.

Geopolitical Factors

Geopolitical tensions, especially in Eastern Europe and Asia, have contributed to market uncertainty. Ongoing developments regarding trade relations and energy supplies are critical factors to watch as they could impact global economic stability and investor confidence.

Looking Ahead: Fourth Quarter 2024

As we enter the final quarter of the year, several key factors will likely shape the economic landscape:

  1. Federal Reserve Decisions: The Fed's next meeting in late October will be crucial. Investors will be keenly focused on any signals regarding future interest rate adjustments, particularly as inflation trends evolve.
  2. Earnings Season: The upcoming earnings season will provide insights into corporate health and consumer demand. Look for reports from major companies in the tech and consumer sectors, which can influence market sentiment.
  3. Geopolitical Developments: Continued monitoring of geopolitical events is essential. Any significant changes could impact market stability and economic forecasts.
  4. Election: While many of us closely monitor election results for their potential effect on stock market performance, it’s important to recognize other factors that may have greater impact on your portfolios. As the chart below shows, the historical data suggests that economic and inflation trends, more so than election outcomes, tend to have a stronger, more consistent relationship with market returns.

Historic Economic Regimes and Stock Market Performance1

As always, it’s essential to remain proactive in managing your investments. I encourage you to reach out if you have any questions or would like to discuss how these developments may impact your financial strategy.

I find purpose, enjoy working with you, and truly appreciate your decision to work with me to reach your financial goals and plan for the future.  As a valued and important client, I thank you for your trust and confidence in me.

Should you have any questions or need further information, please do not hesitate to contact me.  I’m just an email (larry@smcwealthmanagement.com), phone call (949-306-0060) or text (949-619-6916) away! 

You can also schedule an appointment with me by clicking here: 

Click the picture below to access last quarter’s Quarterly Market Insights video: 

All the best,

Larry Qvistgaard 

  1. How Presidential Elections Affect The Stock Market (forbes.com)